[_DX3_]

Originally Posted by Cub Cadet 123

Odds and Chances are the same thing, and often used interchangeably. Odds is defined as "success of an event to failure for that event", written often as a ratio and since you are looking at possessing one serial # cub AND another serial # cub, you are considering a compound event. This possibility of both events occurring can be figured by multiplication of their individual successes for their outcomes. Note that these events are really not independent of each other, even though they could be considered independent since together they constitute less than 5% of the population of production models (serial #'s) for that year or for all years of production. So, the probability of this happening, if "n" represents the number of models produced since the cub cadet began its production assembly of serial numbers would be:

1 - [(1 - 1/n)(1 - 2/n)]

Further, let us suppose that the result of this outcome is a/b, then the chances (odds) of this occurring would be:

a to (b-a)

So, if you substitute the number of cub cadet models produced up to the date of your purchase for the unknown "n" in the first formula and calculate that solution as "a/b" and then you substitute those values in to the next formula given for odds, then you should arrive at your exact solution, thereby describing the exact odds of this occurrence! Hope that answers your questions.

Cub Cadet 123

The odds of me understanding any of that is slim to none. But I'll take my chances and hope for the best and prepare for the worst.