Serial numbers, what's the chance?

[LiamD]

Hi All,
I recently picked up a 1450, with alot of Ohio Steel attachments. The tractor serial number is 600002, produced in November of 1976. A couple of monthes back my brother and I picked up a couple cadets, a 1650, (me) and a 1000, (him). when telling him the serial number of the 1450, he said that his 1000 was about the same. his is 600004. How where IH tractors produced? I guess it didnt matter if it was hydro or geared, they just rolled down the line.
does anyone have 600003? and what is it?

Thanks, Mike

[Cubcrazy]

That's pretty cool Mike!

[EricR]

What is the odds of that, very cool.

[dieseldan123]

The odds are in your favor for finding two cubs that close together! However there is no way of knowing for sure what madel number 600003 would be, and not to mention its fate (still working, parked some where, scraped and melted down, parted, etc) and where in the world it may be. How bout some pics of the serials and the tractors themselves! Not often do you hear about a single person owning two "sister" cubs like that!

[ACecil]

That's pretty neat.

[Methos]

Originally Posted by ACecil

That's pretty neat.

I agree!

Here's the IH timeline with pics from Aaron at xtrememotorworks.com

http://www.xtrememotorworks.com/Cub_cadet_History.htm

[Cub Cadet 123]

Originally Posted by LiamD

Hi All,
I recently picked up a 1450, with alot of Ohio Steel attachments. The tractor serial number is 600002, produced in November of 1976. A couple of monthes back my brother and I picked up a couple cadets, a 1650, (me) and a 1000, (him). when telling him the serial number of the 1450, he said that his 1000 was about the same. his is 600004. How where IH tractors produced? I guess it didnt matter if it was hydro or geared, they just rolled down the line.
does anyone have 600003? and what is it?

Thanks, Mike

Originally Posted by EricR

What is the odds of that, very cool.

Odds and Chances are the same thing, and often used interchangeably. Odds is defined as "success of an event to failure for that event", written often as a ratio and since you are looking at possessing one serial # cub AND another serial # cub, you are considering a compound event. This possibility of both events occurring can be figured by multiplication of their individual successes for their outcomes. Note that these events are really not independent of each other, even though they could be considered independent since together they constitute less than 5% of the population of production models (serial #'s) for that year or for all years of production. So, the probability of this happening, if "n" represents the number of models produced since the cub cadet began its production assembly of serial numbers would be:

1 - [(1 - 1/n)(1 - 2/n)]

Further, let us suppose that the result of this outcome is a/b, then the chances (odds) of this occurring would be:

a to (b-a)

So, if you substitute the number of cub cadet models produced up to the date of your purchase for the unknown "n" in the first formula and calculate that solution as "a/b" and then you substitute those values in to the next formula given for odds, then you should arrive at your exact solution, thereby describing the exact odds of this occurrence! Hope that answers your questions.

Cub Cadet 123

[_DX3_]

Originally Posted by Cub Cadet 123

Odds and Chances are the same thing, and often used interchangeably. Odds is defined as "success of an event to failure for that event", written often as a ratio and since you are looking at possessing one serial # cub AND another serial # cub, you are considering a compound event. This possibility of both events occurring can be figured by multiplication of their individual successes for their outcomes. Note that these events are really not independent of each other, even though they could be considered independent since together they constitute less than 5% of the population of production models (serial #'s) for that year or for all years of production. So, the probability of this happening, if "n" represents the number of models produced since the cub cadet began its production assembly of serial numbers would be:

1 - [(1 - 1/n)(1 - 2/n)]

Further, let us suppose that the result of this outcome is a/b, then the chances (odds) of this occurring would be:

a to (b-a)

So, if you substitute the number of cub cadet models produced up to the date of your purchase for the unknown "n" in the first formula and calculate that solution as "a/b" and then you substitute those values in to the next formula given for odds, then you should arrive at your exact solution, thereby describing the exact odds of this occurrence! Hope that answers your questions.

Cub Cadet 123

The odds of me understanding any of that is slim to none. But I'll take my chances and hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

[EricR]

Originally Posted by _DX3_

The odds of me understanding any of that is slim to none. But I'll take my chances and hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

Right on Dwayne, . LOL

[LiamD]

Wow,

I just wondered if anyone had serial number 600003. But hey thanks for the info.

Mike