Serial numbers, what's the chance?

[_DX3_]

Originally Posted by LiamD

Wow,

I just wondered if anyone had serial number 600003. But hey thanks for the info.

Mike

LOL, you never know what you will get for answers around here, but I do know we have the people that can give you the right answers when needed. Very knowledgeable people here.

[CCSuperMan]

Originally Posted by Cub Cadet 123

Odds and Chances are the same thing, and often used interchangeably. Odds is defined as "success of an event to failure for that event", written often as a ratio and since you are looking at possessing one serial # cub AND another serial # cub, you are considering a compound event. This possibility of both events occurring can be figured by multiplication of their individual successes for their outcomes. Note that these events are really not independent of each other, even though they could be considered independent since together they constitute less than 5% of the population of production models (serial #'s) for that year or for all years of production. So, the probability of this happening, if "n" represents the number of models produced since the cub cadet began its production assembly of serial numbers would be:

1 - [(1 - 1/n)(1 - 2/n)]

Further, let us suppose that the result of this outcome is a/b, then the chances (odds) of this occurring would be:

a to (b-a)

So, if you substitute the number of cub cadet models produced up to the date of your purchase for the unknown "n" in the first formula and calculate that solution as "a/b" and then you substitute those values in to the next formula given for odds, then you should arrive at your exact solution, thereby describing the exact odds of this occurrence! Hope that answers your questions.

Cub Cadet 123

Huh ? Dangit , I smellin smoke from my hat !!

I'll study this a bit more when I'm wide awake .

Very cool to find serial numbers that close . I own a Tag Heuer diving watch from the early 80s and while brousing Ebay , found the same model 1 serial number higher . ( Somewhere overseas ) . I bid it up as far as I coud but it went for big bucks . ( bigger bucks than I could afford at this point)

[Cub Cadet 123]

I get blown away on some of the expertise that many members have about engine knowledge.....now the mathematics part, I can handle-do this stuff all day long in my line of work. So I am always fascinated by the know-how of so many members on here when I am at a complete loss. When I saw another member ask "what are the odds", I knew that I could utilize some of my knowledge to help him out......or at least I thought so.

Cub Cadet 123

[EricR]

Cub Cadet 123, I was just using that as a phrase as most people say but you took it one step further, no problem here.